TOTS Special Edition: Taking a Look at the GOP Veepstakes
I mean, it was low-hanging fruit.
Hi, everyone. To be honest, this post was originally scheduled for a couple weeks from now: Right before the GOP convention date. But with recent reports suggesting that Trump is nearing an announcement and may have already even made his choice, I figured getting it out now was for the best. With a busy week of primaries and debates ahead, consider this a special edition of the blog.
Let’s get some things out of the way: I’ll be discussing each of Trump’s eight reported “finalists” for the VP position, each of which has been reportedly undergoing vetting over the last month. If Trump decides to be Trump and makes an out-of-left-field pick, there is not much I can do about that. Ultimately, the person selected will have a very good chance of becoming Vice President and leading a post-Trump GOP (If one exists), so you may as well learn about them. But we need this to be fun too! Key word here: Opinion. I generally try to stick to nonpartisan, serious breakdowns of data, campaigns, etc. But come on, there was no way I could get through this without poking fun at some of the more interesting case studies here.
Anyways, let’s get this over with.
Doug Burgum
Who is he?
If you are not familiar with Burgum, do not feel bad, because that is probably the reaction of most Americans. Burgum is currently in his second (and final) term as Governor of North Dakota, a position that does not exactly bring you the spotlight. If you do know Burgum, it may be because of his brief, ill-fated presidential bid last year, in which he spent the first two GOP debates on the edges of the stage, attempting to talk energy and agricultural policy (Unfortunately for him, the media was more interested in the insult contest at center stage). Burgum dropped out in December, with nothing but a torn Achilles and a shortage of gift cards to show for his trouble. However, Burgum made a wise decision by becoming the first ex-GOP contender to throw his support behind the former President (Despite some thinly-veiled shots at him during the campaign).
Burgum appears to have moved his way up Trump’s short-list for a number of reasons. Above all else, Trump prioritizes loyalty, which Burgum has provided in spades, even showing up in Manhattan during his trial (Sorry, North Dakotans, bigger issues at hand). Despite his presidential bid, Burgum does not have the raw charisma, youth, or ambition that could upstage Trump. And perhaps most importantly? He is ridiculously rich. In the 80s, Burgum mortgaged his farmland to start an accounting software company, Great Plans Software. A couple decades later, he sold that to Microsoft for a cool $1.1 billion, where he worked until 2007. Besides Trump’s well-known attraction to the wealthy, Burgum, who poured millions into his own presidential bid, might be Trump’s best bet at closing his financial gap with Joe Biden.
Does he help Trump win?
Maybe? Burgum’s… “quiet” national profile and lack of actual controversy is certainly a plus. And perhaps he could assuage the concerns of some moderate voters with his less-outwardly extreme persona, even if he is a fairly conventional conservative. At the same time, it’s hard to picture anyone getting excited about Burgum, as we’ve seen with his own campaign. Trump is at no risk of losing enthusiasm among his most fervent supporters, but Burgum probably isn’t bringing a new swath of voters with him.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
Probably not. Being super rich and VP always helps, but realistically Burgum is a clunky fit with the current GOP. For example, Burgum opposed a national abortion ban while running, despite the increasing popularity of that in the GOP. In 2021, Burgum vetoed a bill that would’ve banned transgender women from joining female sports teams. Burgum later acquiesced and signed a near-identical bill in 2023 after it was passed by veto-proof majorities in the legislature, but continued to offer critical comments. This is in stark contrast to the culture war focus several other high-profile GOP governors have taken on, and frankly, to what GOP voters seem to want.
J.D. Vance
Who is he?
There are a number of different angles I could take to talk about Vance, who at 39 is very much a representative of the “new” GOP. Vance is actually quite new to the elected political area, only in his second full year as a U.S. Senator from Ohio. Prior to being elected however, Vance was already making a name for himself in conservative circles. A former U.S. Marine and Yale Law grad, Vance started out as a Bay Area venture capitalist where he became associated with right-wing donors like Peter Thiel. But then in 2016, Vance wrote a memoir: Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis. The book, which you may very well have heard of, was a polarizing bestseller. While many praised Vance for his depiction of the social values and issues of life in his Middletown, Ohio, a former industrial city, others were more skeptical. Criticism focused on the major generalizations Vance made about white Americans in poverty, as he focused on his own family’s Protestant values, or the policy proposals he embraced. But remember, this was 2016. In the wake of Trump’s victory, many people looked to stories like this for an explanation, however flawed they may have been.
Vance might not have wanted that. Like many on this list, Vance was once an avowed Trump critic. He called himself a never-Trumper, and compared Trump to Hitler. And like many on this list, Vance reinvented himself quite quickly. After the massive success of Hillbilly Elegy, Vance moved to Ohio to lay the groundwork for a bid for office. It’s not totally clear what changed outside of that, but in 2022 when Vance launched a bid for Senate, he branded himself as a Trump loyalist, embracing the similarities in their populist rhetoric, and earning himself a Trump endorsement and a Senate seat. As a Senator, Vance has established himself as one of Trump’s firmest allies, even appearing at his New York trial.
Does he help Trump win?
Frankly, no. There are some who might argue that Vance, a young, intellectual conservative who has embraced the new side of the party is the ideal compliment to Trump. But that argument fails to address a key fact: In general, the most Trumpian candidates who aren’t Trump haven’t done well in swing races (Just look at 2022). Even Vance, who won his race in now reliably Republican Ohio, is an example—Vance did by far the worst of any statewide Republican in Ohio in 2022, the only one to not win by double-digits. Vance’s full-throated embrace of populist rhetoric has earned admirers on the right, and even some unexpected alliances in the Senate, but that hasn’t overcome his personal issues as a candidate, or the general rejection of getting too into the culture war by voters. And just to be frank, as a Twitter (X) addict myself, Vance is what we call “too online.” Trust me.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
Yes. It is quite literally his only goal, and Vance has implied he wants to go further than Trumpism. His past comments will be a point of contention, but regardless of how the next year goes, Vance has put himself in position to remain part of the new wave of Republican leaders, although it remains to be seen if his personal ambition will be rewarded.
Marco Rubio
Who is he?
If you have been following politics for at least the last 8 years or so, Rubio really shouldn’t need any introduction. Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, was once billed as the next big thing in the Republican Party: He quickly rose through the ranks in Florida politics to become the Speaker of the Florida House, and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010 at just 39 years old. From the start, a presidential bid seemed inevitable, and Rubio set out on one in 2016. Rubio started out as a frontrunner, but his campaign never fully out off the ground, and he ultimately dropped out after being easily defeated by Trump in his home state. There’s no time to do a full 2016 Rubio campaign postmortem here or anything, but needless to say he wasn’t ready for the spotlight, an issue highlighted by one of the most brutal debate knifings ever.
Since then, Rubio has been re-elected to the Senate twice, rebranding himself as a Trump loyalist. Rubio battled with Trump throughout the primary, earning himself the nickname "Little Marco" in the process. Rubio responded by insulting the size of Trump’s hands, which led to ...yeah. But Rubio has been one of Trump’s most consistent supporters in the Senate, and is now a serious contender for the VP slot. Rubio didn’t appear at Trump’s trial, but he did come to his birthday.
Does he help Trump win?
Honestly, I think he might. The appeal of Rubio is fairly obvious: He is young, Hispanic, and despite his policy and tonal shift, doesn’t really make the same type of headlines as some of the other members of the Trump-wing. Rubio is also very popular at home, easily winning re-election in both 2016 and in 2022 (The first time doing so despite a very narrow Trump win). And while Rubio’s struggles in 2016 are a concern, maybe the last 8 years or so have prepared him better? No way to really know. The main issue might be residency: Both Rubio and Trump live in Florida, and electors are forbidden from casting their votes for both a presidential and vice presidential candidate from the same state. Trump reportedly is not interested in moving, which is an awkward onus to put on Rubio, who holds office in the state.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
We’ll see. While I just made the case for why Rubio could make a solid addition to the ticket, running for President is a whole different assignment, one that he very clearly sucked at 8 years ago. Rubio’s flip from Trump critic to Trump acolyte may not face as much scrutiny, as say Vance’s however, because of the excuse that they were campaigning against each other at the time.
Tim Scott
Who is he?
In all likelihood, anyone following politics recently knows Tim Scott. The junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina is fresh off a presidential campaign of his own. Scott, who was initially appointed to the Senate in 2013, has long been viewed as a rising force in GOP politics, due to his life story. After growing up in poverty, Scott received a partial football scholarship and eventually started his own business. He slowly climbed through ranks of South Carolina politics before ultimately becoming the only Black Republican serving in the Senate.
Scott’s own presidential bid largely failed to go anywhere. By the standards of a primary that was over before it really began, Scott did decently, qualifying for the first three debates and earning the attention of some big donors, but ultimately didn't even make it to Iowa, as he dropped out in November. Like Burgum, Scott quickly endorsed Trump, and put his money where his mouth was, launching a massive outreach effort aimed at minority voters. In a way, Scott’s campaigning for Trump has been stronger than it was for himself, as the former President has noted, with a strong presence at fundraisers and TV interviews. Perhaps most importantly, Scott has consistently refrained from criticizing Trump, even when campaigning as a rival (Although, he has defended his vote to certify the 2020 election results, which Trump cannot like.)
Can he help Trump win?
Call this one another maybe. On one hand, it’s clear the Trump campaign is attempting to make a strong appeal to non-white voters, regardless of the candidate’s rhetoric, just based on where he’s spent his time and money. And Scott did make that a major part of his own campaign, in addition to his efforts now. At the same time, just having a non-white candidate in the race does not necessarily mean anything in regards to bringing over minority voters, especially at a national campaign where the candidates and their policies are so well-known. Furthermore, Scott never really seemed like a natural campaigner while running, and VP is a more intensive job than your typical surrogate role.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
Eh. As I’ve mentioned repeatedly, Scott’s own campaign just didn’t work at the level some thought it could, and he was not particularly strong in the debates. No one will question Scott’s loyalty to Trump, but he also lacks the firm MAGA bonafides that the party’s current crop of rising stars have competed to show off, as his certification vote shows.
Ben Carson
Who is he?
Talk about a throwback, huh? In case you aren’t familiar with Carson, he is yet another former GOP presidential candidate from the 2016 primary. Carson rose to prominence as perhaps the country’s most famous surgeon. Growing up in poverty in Detroit, Carson earned a full scholarship to Yale before becoming the director of pediatric neurosurgery at John Hopkins University at just 33. After several noteworthy surgical breakthroughs under his watch, Carson became a well-known public figure. There were movies and books about him, he received the Medal of Freedom, etc. Carson eventually took this fame into politics, and like Trump, emphasized his outsider credentials. For a minute, Carson took the GOP primary by storm, even leading national polls for a bit in the fall of 2015. But he faded pretty quickly, and ultimately dropped out after Super Tuesday.
Carson quickly endorsed Trump, despite a… strained, let's put it, relationship throughout the campaign. That loyalty was rewarded when Trump nominated Carson as his Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. HUD is never exactly the most public position, and as you might expect from a career doctor, Carson didn’t really change this. He did get trouble for buying himself a new table, however. After Trump lost re-election, Carson largely faded into the background—until now.
Can he help Trump win?
Probably not! Carson, like Scott, is one of the most prominent Black conservatives in the United States. A personal friend of Trump’s, there are multiple angles at play behind this consideration (Carson is also very popular among Christians). But many of the flaws that Carson faced during his first campaign, when he was criticized for being misleading about his past, and his apparent inability to understand foreign policy, are still real. Carson is also known for being “low-energy” (Hey, don't take it from me!), which may be an issue considering the lines of attack being used against Joe Biden.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
No. While Carson may be well respected by Republican voters, he’s 72 and has expressed no political ambition of his own since his first bid for President.
Byron Donalds
Who is he?
Unless you’re a hardcore politico, Donalds may actually be something of an unfamiliar name, which is quite fair. Donalds’ rise to prominence is fairly recent, as he was only elected to Congress in 2020, representing Florida’s 20th District. Originally from New York, Donalds came to Florida for college and entered the finance and banking industry. Donalds became involved with politics as part of the rising Tea Party wing of the GOP in the early 2010s, eventually being elected to the State House and Congress. In Congress, Donalds has cemented himself as a rising star, with many Republicans looking to him as a representative of a younger (He’s 45), more diverse party.
Donalds immediately pinned himself alongside the Trump wing, voting to object to the certification of the 2020 election, and continuously maintaining his belief that Joe Biden is not the legitimate President. In early 2023, Donalds received his first true national attention when he was nominated for Speaker of the House as an alternative to Kevin McCarthy, a campaign he maintained for multiple ballots before ultimately backing McCarthy. After an unsuccessful second run for Speaker following McCarthy’s ouster that October, Donalds has focused on his closeness to Trump. Donalds has surged, in part, because of his choice to back Trump over DeSantis in the primary. He also appeared at Trump's trial, and when that didn’t work, called on the Supreme Court to intervene.
Can he help Trump win?
I’m going no. While Donalds’ appeal to members of the GOP is clear, it’s simply very risky to choose someone so untested on the national stage for a VP slot. There are other candidates that could appeal to younger voters or minority voters without being so… new to this. Donalds has never even waged a campaign for statewide office. That potential risk came to the forefront recently when Donalds stated that "During Jim Crow the Black family was together." However you want to interpret… that, it’s hard to argue Donalds has shown that he brings few risks to a campaign.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
Yes. Regardless of what happens this year, Donalds has already set himself up to run for Governor in 2026. He’s clearly ambitious and has been so from the start—considering Trump’s fear of being upstaged, that may hurt him in the veepstakes, but in life after Trump, Donalds will be a figure.
Elise Stefanik
Who is she?
Stefanik is best described as one of those politicians who seemed destined for such a career path from the start. After graduating from Harvard, she worked in the Bush 43 administration, and on the Romney 2012 campaign before being elected to the U.S. House from New York’s 21st District in 2014, at just age 30. Over the last decade, Stefanik has spent her time in the House slowly building up her profile into one of the best-known House Republicans. In 2021, following the ouster of then-Rep. Liz Cheney, she was elected Chair of the House Republican Conference, making her the No. 4 Republican in the House (With Trump’s backing). Then in 2023, Stefanik went viral for her questioning of several university Presidents about antisemitism on their campuses, and was created for the multiple resignations that followed. Stefanik made it clear that she had further plans to "cleanse higher education."
Stefanik was not always like this. She was elected to the House as a moderate! She bragged about her bipartisan credentials often. Stefanik took an active role in attempting to help the party elect more women, with mixed results. But ultimately, her shift towards the right really began in the post Trump presidency era. With a chance to leap into GOP leadership, she turned up her already firm support of Trump, a move that won her his endorsement, and thus the post, despite her ultra-conservative bonafides being overall questionable. The former moderate promoted lies about Dominion, and voted to object to the 2020 election.
Can she help Trump win?
Yes, I think so. While Stefanik is far from “tested” on the national stage, she has shown an ability to promote herself and benefit from a news cycle. Her turn-around is pretty cynical, but not necessarily anymore so than anyone else on this list, and Stefanik would almost certainly mark an effort from the GOP to make a pitch to women voters, particularly suburban women who may have voted Republican in the past (Whether or not that would work is unclear). Name recognition would be an issue, but Stefanik is more polished and more energetic than some other names here.
Can she lead a post-Trump GOP?
Debatable. Stefanik is clearly good at being a politician (Whether or not you consider that a compliment is up to you), but her previous reputation as moderate and bipartisan might hurt her. Like many on this list, Stefanik has spent time as a Trump critic. But none of this has stopped her rise so far, and Stefanik is young enough to continue building out a resumé as a conservative hardliner.
Tom Cotton
Who is he?
Another name that might be a bit unfamiliar on here, Cotton is relatively young (47), but has been in politics for over a decade. Cotton was a conservative activist from the start, writing articles at Harvard attacking affirmative action and other such things. After a brief period in law, Cotton enlisted in the Army before being honorably discharged and taking a job at McKinsey (What? Too predicable?). Cotton was elected to the House in 2012, and after just a single term, ran for the Senate and won, easily defeating then-Sen. Mark Pryor (D). Cotton’s time in the Senate has been defined by his interesting brand of conservatism: A mix of the culture war, small government Tea Party, and the hawkish foreign policy of an older-era GOP.
Despite some differences with Trump, Cotton endorsed him in 2016, and quickly caught the ear of the President, offering advice on issues like national security and foreign policy. It was Cotton who reportedly suggested that Trump buy Greenland. Cotton’s foreign policy has become his most influential attribute: He’s called for expanding Guantanamo Bay, defended waterboarding, and taken the hardest possible line on countries like China and Iran, directly blaming China for COVID-19. And yet Cotton has also split from his party to advocate for Ukraine funding and keeping troops in the Middle East. On the domestic side, Cotton is a fairly typical Trumpian Republican, making headlines in 2020 when he had a not very... measured response to the Black Lives Matter protests.
Can he help Trump win?
Honestly, no. Cotton is probably too unique a product at this time: His domestic and social policy push him away from more moderate, establishment Republicans, while his foreign policy is not aligned with much of the Trump wing. In addition to not being a very well-known figure nationally, Cotton may simply be too extreme a figure for most Americans, something he’s gotten away with to this point in deep red Arkansas, even if he has the background and experience to help run a competent campaign.
Can he lead a post-Trump GOP?
I’m skeptical. Despite many news articles showering praise on Cotton for years about “the future of the GOP” Cotton, as I’ve said, is simply isolated from the two current wings of the party. With the Trump wing taking total control, I’m doubtful there’s really room for an interventionist Republican like Cotton, even if he agrees with them on everything else.
WOW, that took a while. If you’re still here, I appreciate it! Hopefully you feel a little more informed about the person who very well could be our next Vice President. Regardless of how you feel about the people I talked about here, it’s important to be informed and all I can hope for is to help with that a bit! Subscribe if you have not and share if you feel so inclined :)
Considering trump’s age and bad shape, there’s more than a slim chance that one of these people could end up leading the nation. I find them all unappealing, but the thought of Carson running the country gives me hives…